As seen on the Wall Street Journal
A change in the weather is enough to recreate the world” wrote Marcel Proust. Due to climate change” more frequent episodes of erratic weather appear to be doing just that.
Ongoing extreme weather shocks are threatening global food security: Agricultural harvests are now more prone to drastic variations in size” making food prices increasingly volatile” warn experts.
“Climate change is the real deal. Back in the 1880s and '90s” the average temperature of the earth was about 56.5˚F [13.6°C]. Now it's 58.1. That's a lot”” says William C. Patzert” climatologist at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration—NASA—in California.
“All over our planet” ecosystems are changing” species are migrating” sea levels are rising. The entire system is shifting”” adds Mr. Patzert.
For now” global grain production is being affected by idyllic weather conditions” meaning global cereal production” which includes rice” corn and wheat” is expected to be 10% higher this year over 2012 levels” at 2.498 billion metric tons” according to the United Nations' Rome-based Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
“This relates to production increases and the expectation that in the current season” we will have more abundant supplies” more export availabilities and higher stocks”” said David Hallam” director of FAO's Trade and Markets division” earlier this month.
The sharp increase in 2013 cereal production is due to a rebound in the U.S. corn crop and record wheat harvests in countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States. World rice production in 2013 is also expected to grow.
Global cereal stocks are thus anticipated to increase 13% this year to 564 million metric tons. Wheat and rice stocks are projected to rise” by 7% and 3% respectively” said the FAO.
The current outlook for grains marks a drastic turnaround since last year after extreme heat and dryness across the U.S. corn belt meant fields baked under relentless sunshine” with the result that both corn and wheat prices soared.
Extremes in harvest sizes from one crop year to another seem here to stay.
“In the last decade” food prices have been highly erratic and we have never seen such instability before”” says Bruce Campbell” director of the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change” Agriculture and Food Security. “There are a number of causes” but an important one relates to the weather” where drought or heat hits a major food-producing region of the world.
“I think the extremes we have seen in the last few years are here to stay”” he warns.
For dry” arid regions of the world that depend largely on food imports for their domestic needs” such as the Middle East” sharp swings in harvest size and the resulting food prices mean the stakes are extremely high.
Food prices soared to new heights in early 2011 amid global supply constraints” particularly for grains. Rising food prices then helped spark the unrest—known as the Arab Spring—that analysts say ultimately ousted the leaders of Tunisia” Egypt and Libya.
“Governments of developing countries face difficult challenges” not just in terms of feeding their growing populations” but also ensuring their sustained access to food”” says Andy White” coordinator of the Washington-based Rights and Resources Initiative.
Despite ample supplies of cereals this year” food shortages continue to plague certain countries. Egypt's military-backed leadership” which took over this summer” is now wrestling to satisfy public demand for subsidized food and fuel” trying to make sure there is enough cheap bread for the country's poor. Meanwhile” in Syria” the persisting conflict continues to severely impact food security: It is estimated that around four million people are in need of humanitarian assistance. The conflict together with global food price volatility and the approaching winter lean period is expected to further aggravate the already tight food situation.
But the hungry also include farmers” from Africa to Asia” who traditionally work on small” isolated plots of land” and who lack access to information” education” transportation and credit. Thus they become unable to provide adequate food and basic resources for themselves or their families” says Raju Agarwal” executive director of OneProsper International” an Ottawa-based charity” which distributes drip-irrigation kits to Indian farmers.
Poverty and hunger have become an embedded reality in the abundance of our global food system and trying to produce more food through large-scale agriculture isn't able to solve the problem.
The U.N. already estimates that world-wide food production will need to double by 2050 to meet the heavy demands of growing populations and to combat global hunger issues” which already affect more than one billion people.
Scientists through innovative methods are discovering new ways to boost yields and even develop drought-resistant crops” which can be cultivated in dry” water-scarce countries.
“Today we are seeing best practices in action. We know that” if scaled up with speed” these approaches could increase food production and improve livelihoods without damaging the environment. We need to create conditions for innovation and then invest so that innovation moves from the lab to the farmers' fields”” said Rachel Kyte” vice president for sustainable development at the World Bank” speaking at the Rio+20 U.N.” in Rio de Janeiro last year.
Daniel Hillel” winner of the 2012 World Food Prize” believes the intensity of light” wind force” even the genetic makeup of the plant” are conditions that can all be controlled through innovative techniques. “Rather than just trying to control the soil or the greenhouse” control over the entire environment of the plant should be the next focus”” he says” “and recognition of this has very recently started.”
While boosting crop production and improving access to food are key to ensuring global food security” in developed nations a more efficient use of available food could also help to feed the hungry. Even small” easy acts by consumers and retailers could dramatically cut the 1.3 billion metric tons of food wasted each year world-wide” the U.N. has said. It claims approximately one-third of all food produced” worth around $1 trillion” is wasted or lost in the food production process.
Original Article – The Heat is on for Farmers